AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Higher Ahead of Export Data Release

Corn starts off the morning mostly a penny per bushel higher. Corn Futures fell to a two-month low Wednesday, dropping by as much as 3 3/4 cents in the front months. Trade ideas for the USDA Export Sales report are running 400,000-900,000 MT for the week ending 11/14. For the week ending 11/15 the daily average EIA ethanol production was up 3,000 barrels per day over last week, at 1.033 million barrels. Production (and implied corn use) has risen for 8 consecutive weeks, but is still running about 1% below year ago. Ethanol stocks were 471,000 barrels lower for the week despite the higher production. They dropped to 20.51 million barrels, the lowest point since 2016.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market Fractionally Higher

Soybean futures are fractionally higher ahead of the weekly USDA export sales data release. Soybean futures fell as much as 6 ½ cents on Wednesday. Soybean meal was down $2.20/ton. Bean oil was up by 24 points. Traders are expecting 0.8 -1.4 MMT of soybean export sales in this morning’s weekly USDA report. Soymeal export sales are expected to range from 100-45,000 MT, and bean oil is anticipated to show 5,000-25,000 MT. US Soybean FOB prices were are currently below Brazil but slightly above Argentina. Malaysian palm oil, a substitute for soybean oil, closed at its highest level since November 2017 on forecasts for limited production expansion in 2020 and a decline in Malaysian stocks at the end of September to 2.2 MMT from 2.5 MMT.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Markets Mixed, With Spring Wheat Lagging

Wheat futures spreads continue to adjust. Chicago SRW and KC HRW are 2 to 3 cents higher this morning. Minneapolis spring wheat is fractionally lower. Wheat futures finished Wednesday’s session mixed. Chicago was 2 to 3 1/2 cents higher in nearby contracts. Kansas City wheat futures were also higher at the closing bell, with gains of 1/4 to 1 1/4 cents for nearby contracts. MPLS HRS wheat on the other hand finished 2 cents lower. Traders are expecting USDA/FAS to show 200-500,000 MT of wheat export sales for the week ending 11/14. Last week’s figure was 238,620 MT and last year saw 330,394 MT for the same week. Australia (ABARE) is estimating wheat production to be a 10-year low at 16.7 MMT, citing drought conditions as the culprit.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Firmer Thursday on $116 Cash

Live cattle futures gained 7 to 52 cents in the front months yesterday. Feeder cattle futures were mixed after Wednesday’s round of trading, with the soon to expire Nov contracts unchanged on the day. The 11/19 CME Feeder Cattle index was up 8 cents to $146.62. Analysts expect on average for October placements to be 12.2% higher yr/yr in Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Cattle on feed as of Nov 1 are expected to be about 1.3% above last year’s Nov 1 number. Afternoon boxed beef prices were lower on Wednesday. Choice boxes fell 80 cents at $238.21, while select boxes were lower by 70 cents to $214.77. Cash cattle traded at $116 in KS and TX. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction saw 1,229 of the 1,398 head sold. TX feedlots passed on packer offers of 114, KS feedlots accepted $114 offers and NE feedlots were given full ask price of $115-$116. The USDA’s weekly estimated FI cattle slaughter is up to 353,000 head through yesterday, that’s 10,000 head below the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog Market Still Under Pressure

Hog futures took another triple digit dive yesterday after a short-lived recovery effort on Tuesday. The cash market was going the other way. The 11/18 CME Lean Hog Index recovered 5 cents to $59.29. Wednesday’s pork carcass cutout value from the USDA was up by $1.91 higher in the afternoon, to $86.58. USDA’s national average base hog price for 11/20 was 6 cents higher to $42.39. The USDA Cold Storage Report comes out Friday afternoon. Wednesday FI hog slaughter was estimated at 493,000 head. Following Tuesday’s record daily slaughter, the weekly total is up to 1.480 million head.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Posts One Month Low

Cotton futures show 20 to 28 point overnight losses. Futures were down 113 to 126 points on Wednesday after a midday rally fell apart. The losses pushed them to the lowest price in over a month. There were 3,520 bales sold on the online trading platform The Seam, brings the weekly sales up to 7,103 bales. That is 13.84% behind last week’s pace. The 11/19 Cotlook A Index was down 50 points to 75.00 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton will be updated later this afternoon, the current AWP is 57.06 cents/lb. The USDA weekly Export Sales report will be out at 8:30 AM EST.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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