AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Fractionally Mixed, Digesting Gains

Corn futures are fractionally mixed to begin the week. They closed firm to 1 3/4 cents higher on Friday, with now front month December up 3.73% on the week. The buying was short covering, with preliminary open interest down 3,882 contracts. The 8-14 day outlook shows above normal temps for most of the contiguous US into the end of September. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed money managers in corn futures and options increasing their net short position by 17,028 contracts to -136,399 contracts as of Tuesday. On Thursday, USDA added 85 mbu to the 18/19 ending stocks projection by cutting ethanol demand by 50 mbu and exports by 40 mbu. At 2.445 billion bushels, that is the largest unsold inventory since 1987/88 and the old Reserve days. We will get the final carryout number at the end of the month via the Quarterly Grain Stocks report.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market 2 to 3 Cents Lower

Soybeans futures are mostly 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 cents lower this morning. They saw 1 to 3 1/4 cent gains on Friday, with Nov 4.78% higher this week. Soybean meal was $2.10/ton higher, with soy oil 8 points lower. USDA reported a private export sale of 204,000 MT of soybeans to China for 2019/20 delivery on Friday. That was likely part of the 600,000 MT that was rumored on Thursday. Traders are waiting for evidence that the rest has been done. US soybean FOB prices are currently below those from South America. Analysts expect NOPA to show August crush of 162.02 mbu, which would be nearly 2% larger than August 2018. On Thursday, USDA added back 20 mbu to the US crush projection for 2018/19, as well as adding another 45 mbu to the export number. WAOB also raised the cash average farm price estimate by a dime to $8.50.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Wheat Markets Hover Near UNCH or A Little Higher

Wheat futures are hovering around UNCH in the CHI and MPLS contracts this morning. KC HRW is up 1 1/2 cents per bushel in most contracts. They ended the Friday session with most KC and MPLS contracts steady to 4 cents lower and CBT slightly higher. Credit that to pre-weekend profit taking. Preliminary open interest in Chicago SRW was down 1,117 contracts. On the week, Dec CBT wheat was up 4.26%, with KC 1.53% higher and MPLS up 2.12%. CFTC data showed specs in MPLS wheat futures and options adding 1,657 contracts to their record net short position to 22,805 contracts as of Tuesday. USDA made several changes to the production category of other main countries on Thursday. They cut Australia by 2 MMT to 19 MMT, with Ukraine and Russia both down 0.5 MMT to 28.7 MMT and 72.5 MMT respectively.

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Sees First Ever Spec Fund Net Short

Live cattle futures settled the Friday session with most contracts 10 to 65 cents lower, as October was down 3.37% for the week. Feeder cattle futures were mixed, with nearby Sep down 35 cents and other front months steady to 12.5 cents higher. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 56 cents lower on September 12 at $136.09. Wholesale boxed beef prices were firm to higher on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 91 cents at $220.88, with Select boxes unch @ $198.60. USDA estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter @ 629,000 through Saturday. That is down 27,000 head from the same week a year ago. Cash trade was reported at $100 in the South and $100-101 in NE on Friday. Commitment of Traders data showed spec funds in live cattle futures and options net short for the first time on record at -6,232 contracts. They also held a record net short position in feeder cattle futures and options at -7,214 contracts on September 10.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Limit Up Two Days In A Row

Lean Hog futures posted sharp gains on Friday, with Dec and Feb up the expanded limit. October was up 4.69% on the week. We will see expanded limits again today. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $1.16 at $60.69 on September 11. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was down $2.26 on Friday afternoon at $68.21. All primal cuts were reported lower. The national average base hog value was 64 cents lower at $45.67. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 2.611 million head through Saturday, 288,000 head above the same week in 2018. Managed money was net long 19,426 contracts on 9/10, down 8,707 contracts from the CFTC report in the previous week.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market 23 Lower to 31 Higher This Morning

Cotton futures are trading 23 lower to 31 higher this morning. They closed Friday with 7 to 20 point gains in the front months other than the thinly traded Oct (down 49 points). Dec gained 6.32% for the week. Crude oil and diesel futures are up sharply this morning (diesel up 16 cents per gallon) following damaging drone attacks on Saudi facilities over the weekend. CFTC data showed specs trimming their net short position to 34,564 contracts by trimming 4,717 contracts in the week ending 9/10. On Thursday, USDA raised estimated world carryout for 18/19 by 1.3 to 83.75 MMT. Chinese imports were reduced by 0.5 MMT to 10 MMT and Australian production was down 0.5 MMT to 1.4 MMT. The Cotlook A Index was unch on September 12 at 70.90 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 52.28, effective through next Thursday.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com