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AgriCharts Market CommentaryDo you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily. Corn Erase Thursdays Losses Heading into the WeekendCorn futures head into the weekend riding on double digit gains, with Dec up 17 1/2 cents. Traders have shifted focus away from USDA’s monthly update on Thursday and moving onto weather across the Plains. Overnight lows were below freezing across parts of the western Plains from ND to the Texas Panhandle. On Thursday, USDA raised 19/20 feed and residual use by 125 mbu. However, they cut exports 150 mbu and FSI by 85 mbu, more than offsetting the feed use. The cash average farm price was raised 20 cents to $3.80. CFTC reported a net short in Corn futures and options of 90,668 contracts by managed money as of Tuesday. The net short was 35,506 contracts less than last week’s short, and has been the third consecutive week for managed money reducing their net short corn positions.
-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management Soybeans Bounce on Trade News and WeatherSoybeans futures saw 9 1/2 to 13 cent gains in the nearby contracts on Friday. They were at their highest price since June 22, 2018 on nearby continuation chart. Soybean meal was also up, seeing a $2.80/ton gain, and soy oil was 13 points higher ahead of the weekend. Cold and snowy weather across much of the Northern Plains helped to support the market. As much as 11 inches of snow accumulation fell in ND, with snow totals from 3 to 10 inches in most of the Central/Easterns Dakotas. Friday marks the end of the 2-day US/China trade talks, with a Phase One agreement in principle. The agreement is limited to Ag products, intellectual property rights and delaying tariff rate hikes that were supposed to go into effect later this month. Under the agreement China would buy $40-50 billion of US ag goods annually by the second year. CFTC data showed spec traders flipping their net position by 15,231 contracts to a net long 6,501 contracts.
-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management Wheat Goes into the Weekend on a High NoteWheat futures made gains at Friday’s close, with nearby contracts up double digits. Dec HRW leading the way seeing 16 1/4 cent gains. French milling wheat hit their highest price on the nearby chart since July this week. The USDA cut 10 cents from the projected US cash average prices for 19/20 to $4.70. If realized, that would be a three-year low. USDA left estimated Russia production at 72.5 MMT, with several other Russian firms in the 74-75 MMT range. This afternoon the CFTC reported that managed money held net short positions in wheat futures. Chicago saw a net short of 19,138 contracts as of Tuesday. Managed money was net short KC wheat futures by 35,076 contracts. MLPS wheat was at a net short position in managed money by 11,777 contracts as of Tuesday.
--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management Live Cattle Higher, Feeders Weaker on Pressure from CornLive cattle futures settled $0.72 to 77 1/2 cents higher on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were mixed, with Oct down 20 cents and Nov 12 1/2 cents higher. Double digit gains in corn suppressed the Feeder market. The CME Feeder Cattle index was 20 cents higher on Oct 9 to $144.65. Wholesale boxed beef prices increased to go into the weekend, with the Chc/Sel spread tightening to $26.98. Choice boxes were up $0.03 to $215.66, with Select boxes $2.02 higher to $188.68. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for the week ending the 10/12 is 645,000 head, 2,000 head less than last year. Nebraska saw some moderate cash sales before the weekend with dressed going for $172.00 and reports of some live sales ranging from $109 - $110.Spec Traders were seen at a net long 12,012 as of Tuesday, according to the Commitment of Traders report from Friday.
--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management Hogs at Net Long Position Again, Higher at Fridayâs CloseLean Hog futures posted 52.5 cent to $1.175 gains in the front months. The CME Lean Hog Index was up an additional $0.53 to $60.65 on Oct 9. The USDA pork carcass cutout value closed 61 cents higher, to end the week at $77.52. Belly fell hard since being up $8.64 this afternoon to finish Friday evening down 73 cents; Rib was also lower, down $1.16 on the day. The national average base hog value saw a 69 cent gain before the weekend, to close Friday at $56.27. FI estimated hog slaughter total from this week, including Saturday, is 2.725 million head. That brings the year to date estimation to 99.265 million, 3.524 million head above last year’s pace. Trade talks between China and U.S. reportedly went well, the two countries agreed verbally to conditions with president Trump and president Xi Jinping set to sign Phase One of the deal in Chile for November’s scheduled APEC meeting. The verbal agreements included plans for China to purchase up to 50 billion dollars of US Ag products annually by 2021.
-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management Cotton Higher on Support from Trade TalksCotton futures Closed 167 to 258 points higher in the nearby contracts on Friday. Optimism from this week’s trade talk sessions gave cotton a boost. The CFTC reported earlier that as of Tuesday, managed money had been at a net short position for cotton futures to the tune of 19,306 contracts. Managed money had reduced their net short position by 5,489 contracts from a week ago. Outside of the production reduction on Thursday (6 lb drop to yield at 833 lbs/ac), USDA left the demand side unch for the US balance sheet. Through October 3, exports of upland cotton have totaled 1.905 million RB, 12% of USDA’s projection and ahead of the 11% average pace. Total commitments are 58% of that projection and 7% faster than normal. The Cotlook A Index was down 50 points to 71.75 cents/lb for October 9. The AWP is was updated to 53.90 cents/lb on Thursday, up 54 points from last week.
-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management Market Commentary provided by: |
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