AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Pressured by Wheat on Monday

Corn futures ended the Monday session with most contracts 3 to 4 cents lower, as the 2019 contracts out to Sept hit contract lows. Losses in the wheat complex pressured the market lower. Weekly data from USDA showed 1.353 MMT of corn shipped in the week of April 18. That was 14.33% larger wk/wk but still 22.15% below the same week last year. After the close USDA indicated that 6% of the US corn crop was planted, on the low end of estimates. That is just half of the average pace for this point but 1% faster than last year.

May 19 Corn closed at $3.54 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.63 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.71, down 4 cents

Dec 19 Corn closed at $3.82 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Lower on Monday, Pressured by Weak Exports

Soybean futures saw 3 1/2 to 4 cent losses in the front months on Monday. Meal futures were down 70 cents/ton, with May soy oil 10 points lower. This morning’s Export Inspections report indicated 382,298 MT of soybeans shipped in the week that ended on 4/18. That was 19.73% lower than last week and 19.07% below a year ago. Just one cargo of 67,113 MT was destined for China. The weekly Crop Progress report showed that just 1% of the US soybean crop has been planted as of Sunday, lagging the 2% average. Ahead of Wednesday’s Stats Canada report, analysts estimate 2019 canola acreage to total 21.8 million acres, which would be down 1 million from last year.

May 19 Soybeans closed at $8.77, down 3 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.90 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $8.96 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

Nov 19 Soybeans closed at $9.09 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

May 19 Soybean Meal closed at $302.50, down $0.70,

May 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.70, down $0.10

provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Lower on Favorable Weather

Wheat futures closed with 5 to 14 cent losses on Monday. KC and MPLS posted new lows in several contracts. The 7-day QPF shows heavy rainfall in parts of TX and OK over the next week. Parts of KS, CO and NE saw rains last night into this morning. After the close, NASS showed winter wheat conditions improving 2% to 62% gd/ex and 5 points on the Brugler500 index to 366. The crop was also seen at 9% headed, vs. the 18% average and 12% last year. The spring wheat crop was shown at 5% planted lagging most estimates. That was well below the 22% average but above 3% from last year. Wednesday’s Stats Canada report is expected to show 24.8 million acres of all wheat for 2019, slightly higher than the 27.73 million from 2018. Durum is expected to be down 1 million acres to 5.2 million acres.

May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.35 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.11 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents,

May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.09 1/4, down 14 cents

--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Lower After Last Week’s COF Report

Live cattle futures were down 80 cents to $1.10 on Monday, with front month April down a tick. This was fallout from the Cattle on Feed report. Feeder cattle futures were 72.5 cents to $1.425 lower on Monday. The CME feeder cattle index was down 14 cents to $145.97 on April 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Monday. Choice boxes were up 83 cents at $234.48, with Select boxes $2.15 higher @ $222.64. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 114,000 head. The monthly USDA Cattle on Feed report showed the largest April 1 On Feed since the reporting series began in 1996. Numbers were up 2% from 2018, with March placements 4.8% larger than the same month a year ago. The monthly Cold Storage report from NASS showed frozen beef stocks as of March 31 at 450.657 million pounds. That is down 4.92% from February and a 2.87% lower than last year.

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $128.500, down $0.025,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $121.575, down $1.100,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $118.775, down $0.975,

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.800, down $0.725

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $159.625, down $1.050

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $160.775, down $1.300

---provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Hogs Lower as ASF Continues to Spread

Lean Hog futures settled with 70 cent to $2.125 losses on Monday. China confirmed ASF cases on Hainan Island, which is more than 200 miles offshore and had been thought to be relatively safe. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another 39 cents from the previous day @ $81.02 on April 18. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 62 cents in the Monday afternoon report, at $87.86. The loin and belly primals were reported lower. The national average base hog was $79.89, down $1.05. Estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday was 324,000 head, as some plants experienced some down time. Frozen pork stocks at the end of March were reported at 610.129 million pounds this afternoon. That is slightly lower than the same month last year and a drop of 0.9% from February. Belly stocks were seen at 58.788 million pounds.

May 19 Hogs closed at $89.025, down $1.175,

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $93.775, down $2.975

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $97.975, down $2.575

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Mostly Higher on Monday

Cotton futures were 17 to 22 points lower in most nearby contracts, with nearby May down 12 points. The dollar was weaker today, with crude oil up $1.82/barrel, supporting cotton via synthetics. After the closing bell, USDA showed US cotton acreage at 9% planted, a 2% move from last week. That was even with the average and down from 10% last year. The Cotlook A Index was up 50 points at 88.25 on April 18. The new weekly Average World Price (AWP) is 68.88, effective through Thursday.

May 19 Cotton closed at 77.190, down 12 points,

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 78.470, up 20 points

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 77.450, up 22 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com